If Astros can’t keep mainstay Alex Bregman, here’s what they’re losing. Cautions Jose Altuve
Potential free-agent pursuers: Yankees, Mets, Tigers and Nationals
It was an unfamiliar finish to the 2024 season for third baseman Alex Bregman — and an unexpectedly early entrance into free agency.
When the Houston Astros crashed out of the American League playoffs at the hands of the upstart Detroit Tigers, it was the earliest a season had ended for Bregman since his rookie year in 2016.
Game 7 of the 2020 ALCS — Oct. 17 — had been the earliest on the calendar that Bregman’s Astros had been eliminated in any of the previous seven seasons. Oct. 2 has marked the approximate beginning of Houston’s annual deep playoff runs, rather than the abrupt end of one.
But when the Tigers secured the final out on that Wednesday afternoon
But when the Tigers secured the final out on that Wednesday afternoon in the early days of baseball’s most unpredictable month, Bregman’s uncertain future was thrust to the forefront, with the possibility that the painful early exit from the postseason also marked his final game as an Astro.
It’s possible that Bregman’s Houston tenure will continue, and there are several compelling reasons to believe that will ultimately be the case.
But Bregman will first hit the open market with the opportunity to start a new chapter elsewhere and bring with him a nearly unrivaled track record of individual and collective success that would strengthen any roster and any clubhouse.
Since the earliest days of his development growing up in New Mexico, all Bregman has done is win. He won multiple gold medals as a high schooler playing for USA Baseball’s 16U and 18U teams.
He reached the College World Series in two of his three seasons at LSU. Drafted with the second overall pick in 2015, Bregman’s professional career has directly coincided with Houston’s run atop the American League.
Though the 84-win Astros missed a playoff spot in Bregman’s rookie year,
Though the 84-win Astros missed a playoff spot in Bregman’s rookie year, Houston has qualified for every postseason since, including seven straight trips to the American League Championship Series from 2017 to ’23.
Only Derek Jeter played more postseason games through his age-30 season (110) than the 99 October contests Bregman has already participated in.
Bregman’s 99 career playoff games are tied with Tino Martinez for the eighth-most in MLB history, and he ranks in the top 10 on the all-time postseason leaderboards in runs (63), RBI (54), home runs (19) and total bases (164) — with his 30s still in front of him.
Bregman’s wealth of postseason experience, renowned work ethic and reputation as a clubhouse leader are some of the headlining features of his case as one of this winter’s premier free agents.
At the same time, October track record and off-field qualities are only a portion of the equation when teams are evaluating whether to commit long-term to a free agent. It’s every bit as crucial to understand what a player has to offer over the course of 162 games before thinking about his added value come playoff time.
Bregman’s glove stands out, but one offensive metric could raise yellow flags
Bregman’s regular-season résumé is similarly stellar, although it can be broken into two distinct sections. In his early 20s, Bregman appeared on track to be a full-fledged superstar.
His fifth-place finish in AL MVP voting in 2018 somehow undersold how good he was, as his 7.9 fWAR ranked third in MLB behind only Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. In 2019 — a season in which slugging across the league soared to heights unseen since the late ’90s, likely due to a livelier ball — Bregman’s production exploded even further.
He clubbed a career-high 41 home runs, drove in 112 runs and drew an MLB-best 119 walks, ultimately just losing out to Trout for the AL MVP Award. With that monster campaign in his age-25 season, the sky seemed to be the limit for Bregman.
