Few pass rushers performed better in 2023 than Josh Allen. He was tied for second in pressure rate, second in sacks, and third in quarterback hits, according to TruMedia. The players he tied in various categories varied, so he was competing with the best of the best across the board.
The former seventh-round pick has been steadily developing since taking on a full-time job in 2021 and improving with each season.
His ascension to the top is well-timed, considering he will be a free agent this summer. If he enters the market, he will be one of the most sought-after players. Regardless, the 6-foot-5, 255-pound pass rusher is in line for a significant increase.
The most likely scenario is Allen getting tagged and remaining with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams don’t tend to let superstar players at premium positions walk away in free agency.
Per Over The Cap (OTC), Allen’s expected franchise tag would likely be $21.9 million because the Jaguars would tag Allen as a linebacker — the defensive end tag projects to be $23.3 million. Now for a brief interlude to complain about the NFL still tagging players as linebackers and defensive ends instead of as off-ball linebackers and edge rushers. It’s 2024.
One of the problems with the franchise tag for Allen is the Jaguars project to have about $7 million in effective cap space, per OTC. Jacksonville can move on from some expensive veterans, but a $21 million cap charge could be difficult for the team to build around.
Still, the Jaguars’ pass rush needs Allen, especially with Travon Walker slowly developing into a consistent force.
Allen could improve even more in 2024 under new defensive coordinator Ryan Neilsen, who created sack opportunities in Atlanta last season without much top-end pass-rushing talent and a below-average pressure rate.
The Baltimore Ravens are in danger of losing a lot of their 2023 pass rush. Justin Madabuike will be a free agent after becoming a dominant interior force with 33 quarterback hits (tied with Allen). The Ravens did a great job on the edges getting the most out of low-cost veterans such as Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy, both of whom will both be free agents, as well.
Four of Baltimore’s top five defenders in quarterback hits aren’t scheduled to be on the 2024 roster.
Instead of patching together a pass rush with veterans, the Ravens could get a premiere edge rusher, which they haven’t had since Matt Judon left.
Historically, Baltimore often allows free agents to walk and replaces them with multiple cheaper options. Still, with Mike Macdonald gone, it could make things easier for new defensive coordinator Zach Orr to have a standout player on the edge.
Like the Jaguars, the Ravens aren’t flush with cap space and would need to open up room for an Allen contract — though that would be slightly easier to do with a low Year 1 figure on a long-term deal.
Byron Young was an immediate impact player as a rookie third-round pick. He had 19 quarterback hits and was 28th among all defenders in early-down pressures. Michael Hoecht played opposite Young. While the 310-pound interior-lineman-turned-standup-linebacker has been fun to watch, he often found himself picked on in coverage.
No team is signing Allen for his ability to drop into coverage. But for many teams around the league that use five-man fronts, the ends need that talent in their arsenal.
In 2023, Allen rushed the passer on 85 percent of his pass snaps. Young was at 78.8 percent, and Hoecht did so on just 60.1 percent of his pass snaps.
In Raheem Morris’ absence, the Los Angeles Rams promoted pass-rush coordinator and linebackers coach Chris Shula to defensive coordinator. With an internal promotion, many aspects of Los Angeles’ defense could stay the same.
After the Rams exceeded expectations in 2023, they could be looking to build and get the most out of an aging offense by building up a young defense. Los Angeles had the sixth-oldest offense and the seventh-youngest defense by snap-weighted age this season. The team also had the lowest spending on defense in the league due to many rookie contracts.
The Rams have about $27 million in effective cap space, which ranks 13th and could allow them to be more aggressive in free agency than in the past. A defensive line of Allen, Kobie Turner, Aaron Donald and Young could allow Los Angeles’ defense to hang with the league’s best offenses.
Seattle Seahawks
Macdonald with Allen is one of the more fun player-coach fits that could happen. As mentioned in the Ravens section, Macdonald did wonders getting production out of veterans such as Clowney and Van Noy, who were consistently schemed as plus-pass rushers.
The Seattle Seahawks were 12th in pressure rate during the regular season but didn’t have the type of player to take over on the defensive line. On third downs, Seattle dropped to 27th in pressure rate.
Boye Mafe was the best edge rusher on the team, but he was just 53rd in quarterback hits despite an impressive nine sacks. Mafe should be unlocked in Macdonald’s defense regardless, but his impact could be multiplied by pairing him with Allen.
