College basketball’s schedule is exhausting, and we’ve entered the dog days of winter. Teams at the top of the pecking order are attempting to separate, but the season is lengthy and landmines can appear out of nowhere.
Let’s look at some of the main high-major races for the conference championship. The SEC, Pac-12, and Big 12 remain relatively open. The Big Ten appears to be a two-team fight, but a few more teams are vying for a spot in the elite group. None can compete with the Mountain West, where Utah State leads, but New Mexico, San Diego State, and Boise State are all only one game behind with plenty of twists and turns to come.
Frontrunner: Self-explanatory. They have the best chance of winning a share of the conference title, according to Bart Torvik’s title odds estimates.
Needs some assistance: Hey, self-explanatory again. These teams appear to be NCAA Tournament contenders, but in order to win the conference, they must perform admirably over the next six weeks.
Longshot: These clubs have less than a 1% chance of capturing a share of the championship, although stranger things have occurred…
UConn (18-2, 8-1): Dan Hurley’s team boasts an impressive 118.0 offensive efficiency rating in Big East competition. That is unquestionably number one. (Butler ranks second at 108.3, according to KenPom). UConn’s defense improves from decent to outstanding with Donovan Clingan healthy and active. UConn still has two games against Marquette and one against Creighton on the schedule, but the Huskies are on fire and might have the highest ceiling in the country. Bart Torvik gives UConn an 84.9% probability of winning the conference outright. UConn has a 94% probability of winning at least one share, but Hurley is going for it all.
Marquette (15-5, 6-3): Sean Jones is out for the season, Chase Ross is nicked up with a shoulder injury and Kam Jones is hobbled with an ankle injury, but Marquette is still alive in the Big East race. Getting Ross and Jones back to 100% before the first of two games against UConn would be paramount, but a banged-up Marquette could be vulnerable against a reeling, desperate, but talented, Villanova team on Tuesday. Marquette (6.4% chance of a Big East crown) can’t afford any hiccups if it wants to repeat.
Creighton (16-5, 7-3): There’s no such thing as a cupcake-laden schedule in the Big East, but Creighton is red hot (winners of seven of its last eight) and it only plays UConn and Marquette once in the final 10 games. Every game is winnable. Seven or eight games feel losable though, too. Creighton’s defense has been pretty locked-in throughout conference play. Creighton’s defensive process of no 3s, no layups and a bunch of midrange jumpers has been a profitable strategy.
Longshot
St. John’s (13-7, 5-4): St. John’s is fourth in offense and fourth in defense during league play. Rick Pitino’s Johnnies have a 3% shot to win a share of the league, but we’re dangerously close to win-out territory.
Arizona (15-5, 6-3): Arizona owns the Pac-12’s best net rating during conference play by a significant margin. It has the best offense (by a mile) and the second-best defense in league play. Arizona is still the heavy favorite to win the league, even though the struggles on the road are notable. Bart Torvik gives Tommy Lloyd’s group an 85.3% chance to earn a share of the championship and a better than 68% chance to win the Pac-12 outright.
Needs some help
Oregon (14-6, 6-3): Oregon had a shot to create some real separation after its 5-0 start in Pac-12 action, but it has lost three of its last four games. None more cruel than a wasted opportunity against Arizona at home on Saturday. Arizona has the better roster, and it played like it against a Ducks’ squad still trying to find itself. Oregon isn’t out of it, but there’s a boatload of work to be done. Oregon closes its regular-season schedule at Arizona ahead of home games against Colorado and Utah. Those might be enormous.
Colorado (15-6, 6-4): The Buffs look like the Pac-12’s second-best team on paper, but the inconsistencies are impossible to ignore. No defense in the league allows more shots at the rim than Colorado. But the flashes from this group are tantalizing, especially when KJ Simpson, Tristan da Silva and Cody Williams are all popping at the same time. Colorado has to find a way to grind out victories on the road if it wants to win the league.
Washington State (15-6, 6-4): Myles Rice and Isaac Jones have coalesced into one of the Pac-12’s best duos. Washington State is one of four Pac-12 teams with at least a 9% chance of earning a share of the crown, but Kyle Smith’s club may really regret that overtime loss to Cal. Washington State led by seven with 123 ticks left in regulation and let it slip away.
Longshot
Utah (14-7, 5-5): Injuries to starters like Rollie Worster and Lawson Lovering crept up on Utah on its latest roadtrip. The Utes got blasted by both Washington State and UW. Utah can’t afford any more bad losses, so getting healthy is paramount to keep its slim hopes alive.
