OK, OK, C.J. Stroud, we get it. You’re not a rookie anymore. Leading the Houston Texans to a rout of the Cleveland Browns, Stroud bucked all the rookie-QB-in-the-playoffs trends, and did so convincingly. And this showing came the NFL’s league-leading defense in the regular season. Cleveland allowed a league-best 270 yards per game — almost 20 yards fewer than the next-best team. Is that enough to forge a winning play in this matchup with the AFC No. 1 seed in Baltimore? Read on for our main AFC play and a bonus bet along with a player prop. THE HEADLINER Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens When: Saturday. Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC. Odds: Ravens -9.5, total 43.5. Reasons to bet the Texans against the AFC No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens must include more than just the eye test. The odds-on NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, Stroud leads the Texans into this divisional round matchup as 9.5-point underdogs. The Ravens are led by odds-on NFL MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, who is not infallible. Over the past three seasons as a favorite of 3.5 points or more, he’s 6-16 ATS. It’s even worse when applying Saturday’s line.
Jackson is 1-8 ATS when leading a favorite of 7.5 points or more. Maybe he just enjoys a close game. His playoff history is checkered, to put it kindly: 2018, lost to Chargers, 78.8 rating 2019, lost to Titans, 63.2 rating 2021, beat the Titans, 74.8 rating (Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill posted an 83 rating) 2021, Lost to Bills, 61.5 rating 2022, Did not play, injured. Jackson is a true talent — the league MVP again very likely — and his legs might prove the difference Saturday. But his playoff stats are what they are: a 1-3 record with three touchdown passes, five interceptions and a 55.9 completion percentage.
